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The Implied Odds Quiz
The subject of implied odds is one of poker’s most important fundamental concepts, and yet many players misunderstand it. The term was first used by David Sklansky in his book The Theory of Poker, in which he also explained the importance of pot odds, something most InsidePoker readers will be familiar with.
Where pot odds refer to the amount of money that is already in the pot relative to the amount you must call, implied odds refer to the amount of money that you can win on future betting rounds, relative to the funds you must risk in the shorter term. A call that may not be justified on pot odds alone can easily be the correct play if the implied odds are favourable.
In this quiz, we’ll look at a few hands in which implied odds are a key factor in your decision-making, and talk through the correct play in each scenario.
Scenario 1 – The Speculative Preflop Call
You’re playing in a $1/$3 No Limit Hold’em ring game at Treasure Island casino in Las Vegas. A new table has just been opened, and you and seven opponents have bought in for the maximum $500. You draw the highest card and receive the button. On the first hand, the player in first position raises to $10. Everybody folds to you, and you look down at 3h 3s.
Question 1
Should you…?
- Fold
- Call
- Raise to $35
- Raise all-in for $500
You have a very weak hand with which to call a raise, and the pot odds, a measly 1.4-1, are not particularly attractive. If no further betting was to take place (for example, if your opponent was all-in), there was no pressure from escalating blinds (as there is in tournaments, which changes things significantly), and you had no out-of-the-ordinary reads on your opponent, you should probably fold.
However, in this scenario there are many factors working in your favour. Both you and your opponent are relatively deep stacked – after the flop, you will each have $490 left to bet, and the pot will only be $24 assuming the blinds don’t call. You have good position, which makes your decision-making on future streets easier. But above all, you have a hand with excellent implied odds.
Lets imagine your opponent has a hand like A-K. When the flop comes K-Q-7, you will not lose any significant money to him. If the flop misses both you and him, then you ought to about break even. He will win some pots because he has the initiative, and you’ll win some pots because you have position throughout the hand. However, if you hit that dream flop, K-9-3 or similar, your opponent may overplay his hand and lose his entire stack to you and your set of threes.
Sets are excellent money-making hands, particularly in small-stakes games where players tend to overvalue one-pair-type hands to the extreme. They tend to be easy hands to play after the flop, when you can often treat them like the nuts and simply concern yourself with how to extract the maximum value from your opponent. If you can get in cheaply and there is plenty of money left to bet, a small pocket pair is one of the best starting hands to find.
When you factor implied odds into the equation, folding becomes out of the question. But what about raising? That’s a poor choice too, because it can have no positive consequences. Your opponent might fold, in which case you’ve missed an opportunity to win his entire stack. He might call, in which case you’ve bloated the pot with a weak hand. He might raise, in which case you’ll probably have to fold because your hand is not strong enough.
Calling is the best option. You’re investing $10 for a chance to win $500, or 50-1. You can’t turn such an excellent opportunity down.
Scenario 2 – Drawing on the Flop
You’re playing $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold’em on the internet. The table is nine-handed and everyone at the table has between $80 and $140 in chips (you have $100). Three of your opponents limp in before the flop, and you are dealt 5h-3h in the small blind. You also call, and the big blind checks. The flop comes Ah-4s-7c. You check, and it is checked around to the second limper, who bets $5. The third limper calls, and the action is back on you. The pot is $15 and there are two players to act behind you.
Question 2
Should you…?
- Fold
- Call
- Raise to $20
- Raise all-in for $99
Answer
Many players would call here, thinking ‘I have a straight draw, so I call’. That’s very basic thinking that will cost them their chips in the long-term. An experienced player thinks a little differently. Here, you have a double-gutshot straight draw, and have eight outs to make a straight (four deuces, and four sixes). Of the 47 unknown cards, eight give you the best hand, and 41 do not (assuming a three or five are not good enough to win the hand). That means you’re just over a 5-1 underdog to hit your straight on the next card, and you’re receiving just 3-1 from the pot. You should fold, right?
Well, no. The mouth breathers came to the right decision, but not the right way. Here, implied odds are on your side in a number of ways. First, when you hit your hand, it will be well-concealed. An A-4-7-6 board looks innocuous to a person betting an ace (which they may well have limped in with), and so you should collect a few dollars when you hit. If your opponent has two pair or a set, he will readily go broke on this board because the surprise value of your hand is so great. Have you ever been playing, you opponent has turned over a straight, and you’ve thought to yourself ‘Wow, I didn’t even see the possible straight’?
This, by the way, is why flush draws are not as profitable as straight draws when the stacks are deep. Flush cards leap out from the board like nothing else, and often kill the action to the point where nobody will pay you off unless they also have a flush. A concealed draw is infinitely more powerful than an obvious one.
Secondly, several players remain in the hand who may be inclined to call or raise after you’ve made your straight. Two of them have shown some strength, and two are unknowns. Nonetheless, it’s worth taking a chance here, and you should call.
Notice again that raising is a mistake. With fewer or tighter opponents, you could make the case that raising to $20 would be an effective semi-bluff. However, in a $0.50/$1 game, you won’t make anybody fold an ace by raising, and you don’t want to reopen the betting for somebody to reraise and force you out of the pot. Save your fancy play for another time.
Scenario 3 – Drawing on the Turn
Back in the $1/$3 game at Treasure Island. You have $490 in chips, and have just tipped the waitress a $5 chip for your fourth mojito. The rum is kicking in.
It’s folded to the player in fourth position, who is clearly a professional as he is wearing both sunglasses and a baseball cap. He raises to $10. The button calls $10, the small blind folds, and you call $7 more in the big blind with As-2s. The flop comes Ks-8s-9d. You check, the initial raiser bets $20, and the button folds. You call. The turn is the Kc. You check, and your opponents bets $55. The pot is now $126, and your opponent has over $500 remaining in his stack.
Question 3
Should you…?
- Fold
- Call
- Raise to $150
- Raise all-in for $460
Answer
Implied Odds come in two flavours. There is the good kind, where you make a small investment on an early street that may pay offbig later in the hand. Then there are reverse implied odds, where you make a small investment on an early street that costs you your entire stack on a later one. You should consider both when making a decision like this.
Here, the implied odds are not as good as they might seem. Sure, the stacks are deep so you could potentially win a big pot. But the downsides are significant. If you hit your draw, the resulting board will be very dangerous-looking, and your opponent may not call your bets because he will be scared of the flush and full house possibilities the board presents.
But more importantly, you may already have the worst hand, and you could be setting yourself up to lose your entire stack on the river. If your opponent (who did call on the button after all) holds one of the several hands that makes a full house, you cannot possibly win the hand and will only be giving him a stack of your money to spend on silly poker paraphernalia.
Your flop call was optimistic but not terrible, but calling or even raising now is a big mistake. Let this hand go.
Summary
Implied odds can be used to justify a call where the pot odds alone would require a fold. However, don’t get carried away. Draw more often when your future decisions will be easy, when there is a lot of money to win, and when your hand will be well-concealed. Don’t draw when you could be setting yourself up for a giant loss.
