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Betting Into the Dry Side Pot
It’s one of the first things that tournament poker players learn. Don’t bet into a dry side pot – that is, if you and an opponent see the flop with a third player all-in, you should not bet unless you hold an extremely strong hand, because it’s more important to eliminate the all-in player than win a few extra chips.
This has become one of the most common fallacies in poker today. There are many situations where it is clearly correct to bet rather than attempt to knock out the third player, even if there is no side pot. But even some successful tournament players do not know about them, and may even brashly criticise you if you make such a ‘mistake’. In this article I want to look at some situations where it is correct to bet, and some where it is not.
First of all, let’s talk about situations where this received wisdom is true. If you’re in the bubble stages of a tournament – (or any time when there is a significant jump in prize money), your primary goal is to eliminate players. That’s because you gain equity in the tournament, equivalent to real cash, every time a player is knocked out.
For example, let’s say that you’re in a tournament where 27 places are paid, and 28 players remain. 27th place gets $10,000, while 28th gets a bit of sympathy and an interview with an intellectually-challenged TV presenter. If you’re in a three-way pot with a player all-in, you should do whatever is necessary to eliminate that opponent. Usually this means ‘implicitly colluding’ with your other active opponent (don’t worry, there is nothing immoral about this) and checking the hand down to give you the maximum possible chance to eliminate the third player. In general, you would only bet a very strong hand like a set, straight or flush – hands that are a virtual lock to win the pot – and you’d never bluff or bet on the come with a draw.
If the third player is eliminated, you have just earned $10,000 in real money! If however you had bet, you may not have eliminated the player, and may even have risked going out on the bubble yourself. Obviously this alternative costs you money in the long run, and it’s something you should avoid.
So it’s clear that there are situations where you should not bet, and should try to eliminate players instead. However, the big mistake that so many players make is to carry over this advice to all tournament situations, instead of the specific ones it applies to. They see this as universal advice because they don’t fully understand the concepts behind it.
Take the same situation, but now there are 500 players remaining, again with 27 places paid. Now eliminating a player has almost no value whatsoever – there are no big money jumps or significant prize differences to worry about. If you send someone to the rail, that’s nice, but there will still be 472 other players to eliminate before you make any real money. Consequently, you should make whatever play has the highest expected value at the time – your overall equity in the tournament is not yet important.
Often, this means protecting your hand by betting, regardless of whether there is a side pot. Let’s look at an example.
The blinds are 100/200, and Player A open-raises all-in for 1500. It’s folded to you on the button, and you call with A♣Q♠. The big blind also calls, making the pot 4600. The flop comes Q♣9♥8♥, and the big blind checks. This is a situation where if it was the bubble, you would check. You wouldn’t mind too much if the big blind held something like the A♥10♥ and made a flush or straight, because at least the third player would be gone and you would have made some money.
However, at the early stages of a tournament (or in a cash game), you should almost always bet. Now, winning that 4600 pot is much more important than eliminating the all-in player, and you would be annoyed if you allowed your opponent to hit a flush or straight and win the hand for free. Therefore, you should protect your hand by making a suitably large bet, and make your opponent pay to hit his draw.
Because most players do not generally bet when there is no side pot and a player is all-in, be aware that if you are called in this situation, your opponent will rarely have a weak hand. If you are called on a dry-looking board like Q♣7♥2♦, you should slow down accordingly against typical opposition. If you get called on a draw-heavy board and the draw hits, you should be very careful indeed.
As you can see, poker isn’t as simple as some would make it out to be. Generic advice like ‘don’t bet into a dry side pot’ shouldn’t be taken at face value – so the next time you hear Captain Casino and his rebuy army offer poker lessons like this at the table, think about what they are saying in more detail, and try to work out if and why the underlying concepts are correct before applying them yourself.
Sample Hand featuring Ted Forrest
From the Mirage Poker Showdown, WPT Season Four
Four handed, blinds are $15,000 and $30,000 with a $3,000 ante (starting pot $57,000). Kido Pham has just lost most of his chips and is pretty desperate. In first position he moves all in for $190,000.
In second position, Ted Forrest ($2,690,000 in chips) looks down at A♠ 9♠ and calls quickly. Chris Bell (SB, $1,485,000 in chips) also calls. Gavin Smith (BB) folds. There's $603,000 in the pot and the flop comes: K♥8♠4♠ . Chris Bell checks, and it’s up to Ted.
Many players would check here without thinking, but Ted is not so hasty. Ted isn’t here to move up the pay ladder into third place, which pays $289,693 compared to the first place prize of $1,153,278 – he wants to win. He throws out a bet of just under half the pot, and Chris Bell folds. Internet forum posters, ever ignorant and quick to criticise, ripped into Ted Forrest for making what is actually a world-class play here.
Ted knows that Kido Pham’s range of hands is extremely wide, and includes many holdings that he is a big favourite against – like worse aces and small suited connectors. He would be unlucky to run into a hand that has him in big trouble, and probably expects to be at worst a coinflip. Chris Bell’s hand is somewhat more of a mystery – not strong enough to reraise and isolate on Kido, but good enough to call.
By betting, Ted achieves several things all at once:
- He protects his hand in case Chris has called with a hand like Q♥J♥ which would fold to a bet, but which has a good chance to outdraw him.
- He can isolate on Kido Pham, who he is probably a significant favourite against. If Kido has a smaller ace, Ted is a huge favourite. If Kido has a pair smaller than nines (which hasn’t flopped a set), Ted is a still a favourite with aces, nines and spades to hit on the turn or river.
- He creates dead money. If Chris Bell folds, Ted has increased his equity in the pot significantly because Chris has contributed to the pot but cannot possibly win it. Ted may even eliminate some hands that are stronger than his own.
- In the unlikely event that Chris has a genuine hand, Ted may win a giant pot and eliminate Chris Bell if he hits his flush on the turn or river, because it’s very unlikely for Chris to put him on a draw.
The only downside to betting is that the chance that Kido Pham will be eliminated on this hand is slightly decreased, because there are some variations where Kido makes a hand that is better than Ted’s, but would have lost to Chris’ had he remained in the hand.
In the actual hand, Chris Bell folded pocket nines and the turn came with the case nine, giving Ted a pair that was enough to beat Kido Pham’s A♣5♦. Ted went on to finish second in the event after taking a couple of nasty beats, with Gavin Smith the eventual winner.
