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Plain Sailing
In the modern poker world, No Limit Hold’em tournaments dominate. With the exception of the big buy-in events at the World Series of Poker and in other major competitions around the world, most of these tournaments provide short starting stacks and have fast blind levels which are designed to end the tournament before a predetermined time. As a result, many of the hands that are played involve an all-in confrontation on or before the flop.
If you’re used to playing online Sit and Go tournaments, or small multi-table affairs at your local casino, you probably won’t have very much experience in making decisions on the river. Consequently, you’ll have difficulty adjusting to the deep-stacked play which is typical of cash games and big buy-in tournaments, in which you will frequently find yourself with a tough decision to make with no cards to come. In this article, I’m going to try to introduce some of the concepts that apply to river play in Hold’em.
The Goals of River Play
What are our ultimate objectives on the river? We want to lose as little as possible when we have the worst hand, and win as much as possible when we have the best hand. That might seem obvious, but there are a great deal of players who simply bet when they think they have the best hand, and check when they think they have the worst hand.
When we make a bet on the river, we want one of two possible things to happen:
- Our opponent folds the best hand
- Our opponent calls with the worst hand
Whenever we make a bet on the river that can only result in a different outcome, we have made a mistake. Let’s take an extreme example to illustrate this point.
We are holding the K♠ Q♠, and our opponent is holding the A♠ 4♠. The flop came 6♠ 4♦ 2♠ giving us a flush draw with two overcards, and our opponent, who acted first, has been betting all the way with his pair and better flush draw. On the river, the board is 6♠ 4♦ 2♠ 9♣ J♥ and both our draws have missed. He checks to us. If we make a bet here, our opponent will likely fold, thinking that his pair of fours can’t possibly be the winner. We’ve got him to fold the best hand, which is fantastic for us.
Let’s reverse the hands so that we have the A♠ 4♠ in the same position. Now betting after our opponent checks is a big mistake. If we bet, our opponent will usually fold any worse hand, like a busted flush draw, a pair of deuces, and so on. Occasionally, he will raise with these hands as a bluff, and we’ll end up folding the best hand. However, if our opponent has a better hand, like two pair, a set, or even a measly pair of jacks, we will probably be called or even raised.
By betting with the A♠ 4♠, we’ve caused our opponent to play perfectly. He will fold or bluff us out of the pot when he holds the worst hand, but when he has the best hand he will call or raise. This is the exact opposite of what we want to happen.
When to Bet or Raise
You should usually bet or raise the river when:
- You think your opponent will fold to a bet, but your hand isn’t strong enough to call one yourself. For example, your think your opponent missed a draw, but you did too.
- You think your opponent will call a bet, but won’t bet himself, and you think you have the best hand (or your opponent will make a small bet if checked to, but call a big bet ). For example, when you have a set, but the river has just made a possible flush, and your opponent has been betting all the way.
- You think your opponent has a huge hand, but yours is even better. For example, when you think your opponent has made a flush, but you have a full house. In this case you’re hoping they will raise so you can win an enormous pot.
As you can see, the criteria for making a bet on the river are quite precise, but it is extremely common to see people make river bets that can only be called by a better hand.
When to Check
You should usually check the river when:
- You have a ‘bluff catcher’ – in other words, a hand that is good enough to beat a bluff, but not good enough to bet for value. For example, you have middle pair, and you think your opponent has missed a draw. If your opponent bets after you check, you can call.
- You have a bad hand, and you are pretty sure your opponent will call a bet.
- You have a great hand and want to check-raise. You’ll usually do this partly to mix up your play, and partly to extract more money from your opponent if you think their hand is good, but not good enough to raise if you bet yourself.
Three Example Hands
Example 1:
This is a hand I played several years ago in the late stages of a small student competition. I was in the big blind with 6♦ 5♠, and the small blind limped in after it was folded round to him. I checked. By the river, the final board was 6♥ 7♥ 8♠ 8♥ 4♥. My opponent checked.
I checked behind him, and announced my straight – and I’ll remember the look on his face for a long time! I was widely criticised by the table for checking, but it is clearly the right play. With four to a straight, and four to a flush on the board, plus a possible full house, no sensible opponent is going to call with anything less than your straight. Making a bet on the end can only lose money as a better hand will call or raise and a worse hand will fold. You force your opponent to play perfectly.
Example 2:
This time, the final board is 5♥ 6♥ 7♥ 8♥ 9♥. You have the A♥ K♥. Your opponent checks. Should you bet?
No, of course not. Even though it’s extremely unlikely that your opponent has a hand that beats the board, a bet still loses money in the long run. A typical opponent will call or raise you 100% of the time with a final board like this. Most of the time, you will split the pot, but a small amount of the time, your opponent will have the 10 for a bigger straight flush and you’ll lose the entire pot. A bet is absolutely terrible. However, if the board contained the stone-cold nuts (like a Royal Flush), you would bet every time and hope that your opponent was silly enough to throw his hand away.
Example 3:
Based on the action throughout the hand, you think your opponent was drawing to a flush, and the final board is J♠ 10♠ 6♦ 5♦ 2♥. You have J♦ J♣ and act first. Should you bet or check?
You should probably check. The key here is that you read your opponent to have been on a draw (if you thought he had a made hand like a pair or two pair, you would usually bet). If your opponent has a draw, he has certainly missed with the 2♥ arriving on the river, and the only hope you have to earn some more money is to allow him to bluff at the pot. Most players would bet the river here, thinking ‘I’ve got a great hand and I should bet’, but that doesn’t matter. In this situation, your opponent’s cards are more important than your own. Probably the only way you can extract any more money out of your good hand is to check.
A Tough Decision for Ted
This hand takes place at the final table of a $20,000 tournament at the Wynn in 2005.
It’s folded to John D’Agostino, who raises all-in for 12,900 in chips. Ted Forrest, in the cut-off holding A♦ A♥, calls. The button folds, and Daniel Negreanu calls from the small blind. The big blind folds. The pot is 41,500 and the flop comes 4♦ 6♠ 6♣. Negreanu has checked in the dark, and Forrest also checks. The turn is the A♠. Negreanu bets 3,000 and Forrest calls. The river is the 6♦ making a final board of 4♦ 6♠ 6♣ A♠ 6♦, and Negreanu checks.
What should Ted Forrest do?
This question was posed to InsidePoker readers. In the actual event, Forrest checked, and Howard Lederer, who was commentating on the event, defended him, calling the check a ‘nice play’. However, at a later date both Forrest and Lederer criticised the check as too defensive. Daniel Negreanu later wrote a brief column for InsidePoker about this very hand, and a prize was awarded to the reader who sent the best answer in.
