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Tell Me More, Volume 1
Throughout late 2004 and early 2005, I carried out a lot of research into the relationship between deception and non-verbal behaviour or 'body language'. One reason I did this was so that I could better understand 'tells' and deception in poker, and be better able to spot deceit in my opponents.
In this article, I'll briefly share some of my findings with you. I'll first summarise a few key points in deception research, and then theorise about their applications in poker. Finally, I'll describe what I found from my experiments in the area. You're probably not a psychology expert, so I'll go easy on you, and try to put everything into plain English.
Fact: Most people can't accurately spot lies
This has been shown in almost every experiment that has been conducted into deception. Human beings just aren't prepared to detect deception, no matter how much verbal or non-verbal information they are presented with.
Fact: Most people overrate their lie-catching ability
Another thing shown by experimental research is that people generally believe that they are better lie detectors than they actually are. Confidence in one's ability has no relation to one's actual ability at detecting deception.
Fact: Most people look for the wrong clues when trying to detect deception from body language
Most people will look for the wrong things in their suspect. For example, many believe that if a person looks away and refuses to make eye contact with you, they are lying. There is no scientific evidence to support this. Other people look for a clue, but forget to take into account how often it occurs under ordinary conditions - for example, a person may think that excessive blinking is a clue, but does not know that the suspect normally blinks a lot.
What does this mean at the poker table? Well, to cut a long story short, your opponents will believe that they are good at spotting bluffs, even though they can't do it to save their lives. When they do catch you bluffing, it will be purely through coincidence, although they will convince themselves it was because they spotted some obscure tell, and this will reinforce their belief that they are good at spotting bluffs. You should encourage their beliefs, since they will cause your opponents to make mistakes against you in the future.
Fact: The stakes matter
Genuine nonverbal indicators of deception come about because there is a conflict between a person's actual emotional state and the emotion they are trying to portray. In a high stakes situation, there is a significant downside to being caught deceiving. In poker, don't expect your opponents to give off any genuine tells unless the stakes are significant to them. A billionaire playing penny poker will not have the same emotional involvement in the game that a working man playing £10/£20 No Limit will.
Fact: Women's Intuition is Nonsense
There is no difference between men and women when it comes to their ability in detecting deception through a person's body language - so the myth that women are somehow better equipped to pick up tells at the poker table is rubbish. In fact, no gender or culture in general is better at detecting deception that any other.
Fact: Some people are good at spotting lies
Despite all this, there are some people who can consistently perform well in lie detection tests. Whats more, as long as the stakes remain high, these people can continue to detect lies in a variety of different situations. These people tend to be from special interest groups, like CIA deception experts, and psychologists specialising in the area.
Those people that are good at spotting lies can usually recognise what are known as 'micro-expressions'. These are facial expressions of emotion, such as a smile or a frown, that last for a fraction of a second. Micro expressions are always genuine and cannot be faked, so are quite a powerful tool in deception detection. Remember, when the emotional state portrayed by a person does not correspond with their actual emotional state, that person is likely to be deceiving. Research has shown that most people can learn to detect micro-expressions with a relatively short period of training. It would be interesting to see what would happen if poker players were to undertake this training.
My experiment theorised that experienced poker players would be one of the groups of people who were good at spotting lies, and that players would be highly aware of the behaviour they themselves displayed during battle. I recorded a poker game, focusing on a participant's body language, and then showed them the tape and asked them questions about what they saw.
In Summary:
Most of the participants couldn't spot their own deception.
In fact, while most participants did okay in the experiment, only 25% performed significantly better than chance. There was nothing obviously different about these players.
Nearly all the participants thought they were deceiving more often than they were.
This is a clear bias. My theory is that outrageous bluffs and deceptive plays stand out far more in the memory of players than dull value bets.
So from the experiment, I learned that most poker players aren't very good at spotting deception, and that they overestimate how often it happens. Actually, what amazed me the most was how rarely players deceived in the games I filmed. Think about it - you throw most of your starting hands away. Most of the time, when that hand turns out strong you bet or raise, and when it turns out weak you check or fold. Only a very small percentage of the time do you bluff, slowplay, or whatever. Yet poker without deception does not sound like an appealing game at all.
What can we learn from all this? First, realise that you are probably not a good lie detector. Don't try to be. Direct your attention to something more important than trying to discover whether your opponent blinks more often when he has a good hand than when he has a bad hand. Most of your opponents won't be good lie detectors either, so don't worry too much about hiding your bluffs and deceptive plays. By trying to cover up your deceit, you're more likely to produce some mannerism that will give you away. Finally, don't overestimate the role that deception plays in poker. Your opponent isn't always bluffing. Don't always call him.
© Alex Scott September 2005
