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Five Steps to No Limit Hold'em Greatness
I wrote this article in January 2005, in order to help a friend of mine who was beginning to play for real money on the internet. It's not meant to be an exhaustive study of Hold'em.
Step 1: Know What Makes a Good Starting Hand
The strength of a two card Hold’em hand can be ranked on three scales:
• High Card Strength – the higher both cards are, the better. The scale is exponential – so a three is only slightly better than a deuce, but an ace is significantly better than a king. A hand like 3-2 has very little high card strength. A hand like A-2 has medium high card strength, since only one of the two cards is high (whenever you are likely to only use one of your pocket cards to make your best five-card hand, the hand is instantly weakened). A hand like A-K or Q-Q has a significant amount of high card strength.
• Suitedness – Having both cards the same suit is an advantage, due to the possibility of making a flush. If one of the cards is an ace, even better, since this will mean any flush you make is the best possible.
• Connectedness – Having both cards adjacent in rank is a big advantage, due to the possibility of making a straight. The closer together the cards are in rank, the better – so A-K is significantly better than A-J.
To play a starting hand, it should be strong on at least two of the three scales. Lets look at some examples:
• A-Ks: This hand is suited and the cards are adjacent (these combinations of cards are called ‘suited connectors’). The hand has a great deal of high card strength. Because the hand is strong on all three scales, it’s a powerful holding.
• A-A: This hand has the best possible high card strength. It cannot be suited or connected, but because it is so strong on the high card scale there are very few situations in which you wouldn’t play it.
• 7-2: This is considered by most to be the worst starting hand in Hold’em. It has very little high card strength, and it cannot make a flush or a straight using both cards.
• K-Q: This hand has good high card strength, is not suited, but is connected. It is strong on two scales, making it a reasonable but not excellent holding.
• A-6: This hand has medium high card strength, is not suited, and is not connected. It should very rarely be played in a full game.
How you weigh each of the three scales depends on many factors, but most importantly on the number of players in the game. In all situations, high card strength is the most important factor. At a full table (10 players), it is possible to play cards that have little high card strength but are suited and connected – like J-10s, particularly from late position (see Step 2). As the number of players decreases, the value of having suited or connected cards decreases. In a short handed game, high cards reign supreme.
Another consideration used in determining the strength of your hand is how much money you can win if you make the best hand, and how much money you will lose if you make a second best hand. Smaller suited connectors can make a lot of money if they flop the best hand, but should only lose a little if they don't. Conversely, some combinations of big cards like K-Q and K-J can lose a lot of money when they make a second best hand, but only win a little when they make the best hand.
Remember that before the flop, you are betting on the potential of the cards you hold to turn into a strong poker hand. What is a favourable situation preflop can quickly turn into an unfavourable situation when the board is dealt. Don’t get committed to cards before the flop and play them badly when you miss. If in doubt, fold.
Step 2: Know Your Position
Your position relative to other players is one of the most important factors in poker. It is nearly always an advantage to act after other players, because with each player that acts before you, you gain information. This is why in very early position you need a better hand to play in the first place.
At a full table, position can be broken down like so:
• Seats 1 and 2: The Small and Big Blinds. This is a special situation – you have an advantage preflop, but a considerable disadvantage after the flop. In this kind of position you want to play cards that have the potential to develop into very strong holdings after the flop. Playing too many hands out of the blinds is a recipe for disaster.
• Seat 3: ‘Under The Gun’ or First Position. In this position you are first to act before the flop, and often first to act afterwards. This is a considerable disadvantage, and you should adjust to this by playing only the very strongest starting hands, and using considerable caution after the flop.
• Seats 4 and 5: Early Position. At least half the field has an advantage on you. Play strong hands only, and exercise caution.
• Seats 6,7 and 8: Middle Position: Here you can loosen up your starting requirements slightly, but you should still be aware that there are players still to act.
• Seat 9: Late Position: Here you have an advantage over most of the other players and should act accordingly.
• Seat 10: The Button: Now you will act last on every betting round except the first, where you will be in an ideal position to steal the blinds when people show weakness. This is a considerable advantage, and you can afford to relax your starting standards provided you can play well after the flop.
The later the position you are in, the more inclined you should be to play drawing hands, like suited connectors, particularly if several players have already limped in. The earlier your position, the more you should stick to solid high cards.
Step 3: Know The Odds
Odds for Drawing Hands in Hold’em
Type of Draw |
# of Outs |
Chances On Flop |
Chances On Turn |
Pocket pair hitting trips |
2 |
9% |
5% |
Inside Straight |
4 |
18% |
9% |
Two overcards |
6 |
24% |
14% |
Open Ended Straight |
8 |
32% |
18% |
Flush |
9 |
37% |
21% |
Flush with one overcard |
12 |
45% |
27% |
Flush with two overcards |
15 |
54% |
34% |
Straight or Flush |
15 |
54% |
34% |
Straight or Flush or hitting one of two overcards |
21 |
67% |
48% |
There are situations when it is correct to call on a draw. For example, if you will make your hand 37% of the time, but only have to call for 20% of the pot size, the call shows a profit in the long run.
Probability of Being Dealt Specific Starting Hands in Hold’em
| A specific pair | 220/1 (0.45%) |
| Any pair | 16/1 (5.9%) |
| A-Ks | 331/1 (0.3%) |
| A-K | 110/1 (0.9%) |
| A-K or A-Ks | 82/1 (1.2%) |
| Any two suited cards | 3.3/1 (24%) |
| Any two suited connectors | 46/1 (2.1%) |
| Any two connecting cards | 11/1 (8.5%) |
Odds of Improving on the Flop in Hold’em
| A set or better from a pocket pair | 7.5/1 (11.8%) |
|
8.3/1 (10.8%) |
|
136/1 (0.74%) |
|
407/1 (0.25%) |
| A flush from two suited cards | 118/1 (0.84%) |
| A flush draw from two suited cards | 8.1/1 (10.9%) |
| A straight from two connectors | 76/1 (1.3%) |
| An eight out straight draw from two connectors | 8.6/1 (10.5%) |
| A four out straight draw from two connectors | 3.6/1 (22%) |
| At least a pair from two unpaired cards* | 2.1/1 (32.4%) |
| A pair from two unpaired cards | 2.5/1 (29%) |
| Two pair from two unpaired cards | 49/1 (2%) |
| Trips from two unpaired cards | 73/1 (1.35%) |
| A full house from two unpaired cards | 1087/1 (0.09%) |
*Always using one of your pocket cards
Hold’em Hand Matchups
| Type of Matchup | Rough Percentage Advantage |
| Higher Pair VS Lower Pair (eg. A-A vs K-K) | 80% for higher pair |
| Pair VS Dominated cards, no overcards (eg. A-A vs A-K) | 90% for pair |
| Pair VS Two under cards (eg. A-A vs J-10) | 80% for pair |
| Pair VS Two Overcards (eg. 9-9 vs A-K) | 53% for pair |
| Pair VS Dominated cards, one overcard (eg. K-K vs A-K) | 70% for pair |
| Pair VS One overcard (eg. K-K vs A-Q) | 71% for pair |
| Dominating Situation (eg. A-K vs A-Q) | 75% for higher cards |
| Two higher cards VS Two lower cards (eg. A-K vs 7-8) | 60% for higher cards |
| Two cards VS One overcard and one undercard (eg. Q-6 vs K-5) | 54% for higher cards |
All percentages are affected by the flush and straight possibilities of the cards involved.
Step 4: Know How To Bet
The size of your bet in No Limit Hold’em is dictated by the size of the pot or the blinds.
Before the flop, a ‘standard’ opening raise is three times the big blind. So if the blinds are £0.50 and £1, a good sized opening raise is £3. This gives your opponent bad odds to call with a drawing hand. If people have already called the blinds, you should increase the size of your raise accordingly.
After the flop, a standard bet size is roughly the size of the pot. So if the pot is £3.75, bet £4. This gives your opponent bad odds to call with a drawing hand and forces them to make a decision. If your opponent were to then raise £12, the decision would be on you.
There are situations where you would want to bet more or less than the pot size. Ideally, you would prefer to bet more with your strong hands and less with your weaker hands. However, doing so without effectively randomising might convey too much information to your opponents.
If you make a hand on the flop, such as top pair, and there are possible draws (such as two suited cards or two cards to a straight), it is usually best to make a bet in order to protect your hand, and extract money from your opponent. Giving away free cards to your opponents by checking, giving them a chance to catch up, can be disastrous.
Step 5: Know The Other Players
Players are often classified by poker writers on two scales:
• Tight or Loose: A tight player plays relatively few hands and is reluctant to bet or call without a decent holding. A raise from a tight player often means business! A loose player plays relatively more hands and is more likely to call or bet with mediocre holdings.
• Passive or Aggressive: A passive player is more likely to call a bet than to make one. An aggressive player makes a lot of bets and raises, and forces other players to make decisions.
It is generally thought that the best style to be is Tight and Aggressive. In other words, wait patiently for the right situation, and then exploit it to the full with aggressive play. A tight aggressive style is what you would use in Martial Arts – look for an opening and then strike with full force, but avoiding wasting energy when you don't have the advantage.
If you notice a player is playing very tight, be more inclined to bluff him. When he bets or raises, assume he has a good hand more often.
Against loose players, play more hands that can become very strong (like nut flush draws), since you are more likely to be called when you make your hand against this kind of player. Be less inclined to bluff a loose player. When he bets or raises, assume he has a good hand less often.
Notice what kinds of players are at your table and adjust accordingly!
Copyright 2005 Alex Scott
